Post by Renae/k9do on Nov 4, 2005 23:41:00 GMT
Conditions recovered from zero sunspots, which lasted for five days.
Average sunspot numbers rose nearly 10 points to 17.6 this week.
Average daily solar flux only rose 1.2 points to 75.4.
October just ended, so let's look at monthly averages for sunspot
numbers and solar flux to see if the trend is still down. Last
month we looked at quarterly averages, but with monthly averages
this time we'll see more volatility.
The average daily sunspot numbers for the months September 2004
through October 2005 were 50, 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5,
65.4, 59.8, 68.7, 65.6, 39.2 and 13. Average daily solar flux for
the same months was 103, 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9, 85.9,
99.5, 93.7, 96.5, 92.4, 91.9 and 76.6.
You can see that the numbers declined every month for the past four
months, especially October, which was like dropping off a cliff.There has been some geomagnetic disturbance over the past couple of
days, but conditions should settle down this weekend.
The predicted planetary A index for Friday through
Monday, November 4-7 is 20, 20, 12 and 8. Sunspot numbers and solar
flux should rise slightly, reaching a peak around November 6-8.
If the planetary A index is 20 or higher this weekend it may cause
some difficulty reaching those VE8 or KL7 multipliers in
Sweepstakes, but don't count on any major flare activity.